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Falcon Commodities

CTRM and quantitative decisions, next.

Physical trades, positions, exposure, hedging context and optimisation in one decision layer, with the same evidence boundaries as the rest of Falcon.

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Build status

Where the build is now.

Falcon Commodities is being built on the operating core that runs Falcon Shipping today. General availability is targeted for 2027 Q2.

  1. 2026 Q1Scope agreedComplete
  2. 2026 Q3Core buildIn progress
  3. 2026 Q4Design partnersPlanned
  4. 2027 Q2General availabilityTarget

In development. A target window, not a delivery commitment.

Discuss a fit for your data

Product direction

From physical trade to accountable decision.

  1. 01

    Trade

  2. 02

    Position

  3. 03

    Exposure

  4. 04

    Risk

  5. 05

    Hedge

  6. 06

    Optimise

  7. 07

    Decide

Planned scope

A connected CTRM and decision layer.

The following areas describe intended product direction, not released production functionality or a delivery commitment.

Physical Trading
Contracts, purchases, sales, inventory and logistics.
Positions
A consolidated view of physical and derivative context.
Risk
Decision-relevant exposure and scenario context.
Hedging
Hedge identification and comparison within agreed scope.
Optimisation
Volume, location, timing and structure decisions.
Intelligence
Market relationships, regimes and anomalies where evidenced.
Ask Falcon
Natural-language access to approved portfolio and business context.

Illustrative direction

Market and position context in one decision view.

This illustrative view uses synthetic data to show information relationships. It is not a released CTRM interface or a live data connection.

Falcon Commodities · Market workspace

Market and position context

Illustrative physical position and market context

Market context

Iron ore fines · CFR (synthetic)
102.40 $/dmt
+0.8%
Bunker · VLSFO (synthetic)
586.00 $/mt
−0.3%
Capesize voyage freight (synthetic)
13.10 $/wmt
+1.1%

Physical position

Committed volume
48.0 kt
Open position
12.5 kt
Next control
Review pricing window

Ask FalconWhat changed in the authorised market context behind this position?

Concept, not a running product. Synthetic values, drawn to show how the pieces relate.

Published research

Cargo and freight are one risk system, and the direction is not the obvious one.

Peer-reviewed work on the Capesize market measured where volatility actually starts. Over 2014 to 2023, iron ore futures took in more volatility than they sent out, while the Brazil loading leg sent out the most. Turn the controls to read the published estimates yourself.

Falcon Research · Published-evidence explorer

Which market moves which, in the Capesize network

Capesize time-charter routes, priced in USD per day

37.18%Total connectedness

Every frequency combined. Of everything that moves these seven markets, 37.18% arrives from one of the others. The rest is each market’s own business.

Iron ore · Iron ore futures, active contract

Quoted in CNY/tonne · 87.16% of its variance is its own

Sends out 5.88%

Brent
2.16%
C8_14
0.98%
C9_14
0.82%

Takes in 12.84%

Brent
4.58%
C14
2.21%
C9_14
2.02%

Top 3 counterparties each way. Percentages are shares of forecast error variance, not price changes.

Published results, redrawn. Source: Mi, J.J., Ahmed, S. and Chen, Y. (2025) “Exploring volatility transmission in Capesize freight contracts: Insights from energy and commodity markets”, PLOS ONE 20(1): e0317487, licensed CC BY 4.0. Daily, 23 June 2014 to 21 December 2023, 2,376 observations. Method: TVP-VAR with 20-step generalised forecast error variance decomposition, 200-day rolling window. Connectedness describes how volatility has travelled between these markets over that sample. It is not a forecast, not a trading signal, and not investment advice. Five freight series sit against two commodity series, so freight-to-freight transmission raises the freight totals; the pairwise figures are the safer read. Falcon does not endorse or restate the authors’ conclusions. Read the paper

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